SO i’ve resubbed.
I’ve been busy actually playing the game, so i haven’t ha much of a chance to right about it. suffice to say that I spent it checking out the changes, catching up with some really old friends, and making the sad realisation that everything cost about twice as much, and that half of my fits no longer fitted.
My Hurricane was sad.
In other news, i’m in the process of moving back to my birthspace of ducktape and rust, in Heimatar. With Jita being a ppain, and with the culture in rens being hilarious, and angel rats being so obliging to my Mael, it’s not a move i’m regretting.
i ran a few missions, mined a few rocks, and obliged the gents of the Rens Fight Club (Not the corp, but rather the community that it consists of) with a rifter kill after learning of some of the finer changes of frig pvp the hard way. Not that i was very good at it in the first place.
Overviews must be optimised, reflexes and reactions honed. I think i’ll be spending quite a fair bit of time on Duality, attempting to return to scratch.
Of course, it’s also interesting to see that the view that i postulated in one of my more theoretical posts five days back has since become pretty much the common line (TMC, but still) amongst observers (EN24 for the alternative) following Mitten’s CEO update on the 28th.
EN24 even uses my Tanks Analogy for supercaps. It’s probably entirely coincidental, but that’s still interdasting.
As always, there’s a lot of misdirection. If Mittens is to be believed, than the Goons are far poorer, incompetent and lazy than what prior experience has indicated. Now, as I don’t believe Mittens, the question is why CFC has ended up fighting most of Nullsec, with the noticeable exception of the russians?
Mittens, and the CFC in general, often goes on about the value of psychological warfare, and the old Sun Tzu maxim of “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting” For all this talk about “making Goons strong by a nice hard sov war”, traditional goon strategy is to only dedicate forces when a victory is all but guaranteed, or at least where defeat is of no great consquence. That’s how Goonswarm has operated since Mittens proved the superiority of such a method when he engineered the dissolution of BOB.
The object of sov wars are not to “have a good old sov war” and big fleet actions, but rather to win in the fastest, cheapest and easiest way possible. Fair fights don’t enter the equation.
So the question is why did Mittens, and the CFC in general make such a colossal blunder as the Fountain war? Mittens would have you believe that the Bandwagoning of the various enemy forces was unseen, and that it’s only temporary anyway. I don’t buy that. GSF has been the most diplomatically astute entity in EVE for years, there’s no way they’d simply waltz into Fountain and presume that there wouldn’t be consequences.
Because in the weeks leading up to the Fountain War, GSF appeared to be following their old strategy perfectly. HBC had collapsed internally from Mittens engineered friction. With a little more of a push, TEST could well have ceded fountain without much of a fight.
CFC must have taken all the appropriate steps and precautions. There’s no way CFC would enter into a war of that scale without knowing firmly, in their mind which side of the board the pieces lay. Pandemic Legion must have been consulted. N3 must have been consulted. NCdot must have been consulted. CFC has had half a year to engineer this war.
To suggest that CFC would invade Fountain in the manner that they did without assurances of neutrality or support by the other major players is not merely laughable, it’s ludicrous and an insult to CFC’s diplo team. Deals would have been made, assurances given. By the time the first goon fleets invaded fountain, in Mitten’s mind the rest was simply a matter of time and rhetoric, entertainment provided for the masses, and an important opportunity to stretch FC and footsoldier muscle, update doctrines, spout goon propaganda.
And then… something happened. Somewhere in the smoky corners of Jabber, and the back rooms of inter-coalition diplomacy, something changed, something radical. Something that the diplo team, and by extension Mittens himself did not consider a possibility. The most diplomatically astute and organised entity in EVE found themselves outmanoeuvred.
Because i refuse to think that the “bandwagoning” of allies to TEST was spontaneous. Oh for some, it might have been, like Fweddit and BNI (well, mercs but still), but ones such as PL do not simply engage in a battle with the most powerful single entity in the universe because the mood takes them.
CFC sought assurances from the other major players. It got them, and believed them. Then the others conferred in private, and agreed to break said assurances, in mutual support of one another.
Going public with such a betrayal would not benefit any party. It would impinge the honour an reputation of PL, N3, NCdot and others, while meanwhile it would undermine CFC’s own.
And this is largely why Mittens is Tacitly acknowledging massive levels of diplomatic incompetence. Because the alternative is admitting that not only had CFC been outplayed in the diplomatic arena, seemingly without being aware of the conspiracy, something quite remarkable given the prevalence of spies, but also because under this light the “spontaneous” arrival of TEST’s allies begins to look like something a lot more premeditated.
Which of course means a lot more permeant and organised. Since CFC propaganda currently hinges on the apparent disorganisation and rabble like nature of the foe, revealing any evidence to the contrary would be a bad move. PL and others have expended both trust and diplomatic capital in taking this side, and CFC isn’t likely to forget that for a while. AGAMI (Anti Goon Alliances of Mutual Interest) or COCFAG (Coalition of Coalitions Fighting Against Goons) as it is known on TMC, is currently the subject of ridicule by all parties, even itself. However the real question is no longer if Goonswarm wins fountain. As Mittens said himself
“I imagine that there’s no one left dumb enough to think this war has anything to do with TEST anymore”
No, the question is now who will win this now very hot war for the supremacy of nullsec, and by extension EVE.
The key difference lies in the stated objectives of both sides. AGAMI is fighting to prevent the growing Goonswarm Hegemony, Goonswarm to expand it.
It looks set to be a long war. The decider?
What side will you fight for? I’m not talking about isk here, but rather what will be the verdict of the players of EVE in this matter? Will you see a new BOB rise up to take control of nullsec, or will you stand against it? That is ultimately what it comes down to, more than anything else.
The Drums are beating, for both sides, summoning pilots from null, WH, Lo and High space to their cause.
Which call will you answer?